Nifty 50 opened steady on June 25, 2025, consolidating within a range of 24,800–25,300. Bulls are eyeing a breakout above 25,500 as positive developments from the Middle East ceasefire fuel global optimism. This narrow trading band is typical during times of mixed global signals, and traders are waiting for strong domestic cues or corporate earnings triggers.
Looking at the historical performance, Nifty had experienced a similar phase of tight consolidation in March 2024 before a breakout led to a sustained rally above the 23,000 mark. This precedent gives optimism to bulls eyeing a breakout, especially with supportive macroeconomic data now emerging.
Technically, Nifty is holding firm above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating ongoing bullish undertones. The RSI remains neutral at 54, neither signaling overbought nor oversold territory. Meanwhile, the MACD is on the cusp of a bullish crossover, which may signal an entry point if confirmed by volume.
Banking and IT sectors are displaying relative strength. HDFC Bank and Infosys have both gained over 2% in the last two sessions, supported by strong institutional buying. FMCG is also contributing to stability in the index, with Hindustan Unilever leading gains in that sector. On the other hand, auto stocks have remained sluggish, reacting to weaker May sales numbers.
According to data from NSE, FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) inflows were positive for the fourth consecutive day, totaling ₹1,845 crore on June 24. This reversal in FII behavior is seen as a crucial driver for market sentiment.
Geopolitical risks appear to be cooling, with ceasefire talks easing pressure on crude oil prices. Lower oil prices typically benefit Indian markets by improving current account balances and easing inflationary concerns. Additionally, the IMD’s revised forecast of a ‘normal monsoon’ through July and August could support rural demand and improve earnings visibility for agri-dependent businesses.
In conclusion, while Nifty 50 continues to consolidate in the short term, both technical indicators and fundamental cues suggest the market could be poised for a breakout. Traders should watch for a decisive close above 25,350 supported by volume, which could propel the index towards 25,700 in the coming weeks. Risk management remains key, and stop-loss levels near 24,800 should be maintained by short-term participants. If global cues remain supportive, the bulls may very well take charge heading into the next quarter.